Exploring Multiple Seasonal MA Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31258/jomso.v2i2.37Keywords:
multiple seasonal, MA, subset, multiplicative, additiveAbstract
This study explores the use of multiple seasonal Moving Average (MA) models for short-term load forecasting, focusing on identifying the most suitable model order, which may involve subset, multiplicative, or additive components. While many seasonal MA models for time series forecasting tend to assume non-multiplicative structures, often without performing statistical tests, this research introduces a new procedure to determine the most appropriate multiple MA order. The study includes a case analysis of short-term load forecasting in a specific country. The findings of the study indicate that incorporating multiple multiplicative parameters can significantly improve model accuracy.
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